WHO'S GOT WHAT SUBMARINES?

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Since 05-14-05

BULLETIN NO. 25
 www.submarineresearch.com

Subj: Current and projected distribution of submarines to the nations of the world.

Note: The following information comes to SRC principally from AMI, Naval Advisors and Consultants. SRC is indebted to AMI for its cooperation in detailing information not normally available to the public.

Note: The word, "Sterling" is the English version of the Swedish (and German) word, "Stirling". Further confusion arises from the English city of Stirling and a nineteenth century scientist, Richard Stirling. SRC uses each without discretion and misspelling should not be inferred.

Note: The next bulletin (26) will explain the propulsion system of the Seawolf and Virginia class submarines. Look for it on our website www.submarineresearch.com toward the end of January.

Perception of Need

Nations perceive threats from their shores. These range from transportation of narcotics to distrust of other nations having submarines. It is a world-wide perception and only those few nations having no access to an ocean are exempt from the perceived need.

What Nations Are Looking For in a Submarine

With the exception of the United States, Russia, Britain, and France, nations seek to build or purchase inexpensive, but effective submarines reflecting advanced design without the need to have extended range. The U-31 type submarine, which is one of the world's most advanced submarines, sells for just over one half billion dollars per copy. In addition, Howaldtswerke sells complete shore based support facilities (for LOX and hydrogen storage). This cost can be compared to the cost of a Seawolf type submarine which is in the range of 1.5 to 2 billion dollars.

Specifications for bids include:

Submarines should be suited for detection of hostile submarine intrusion into home waters, bottom mapping of shore regions, detection of mines, detection of electronic emissions and ability to carry unmanned submerged vehicles.

 

Nations are looking for stealth at the extreme. They want as low as possible a snorkel and periscope indiscretion rate. Some nations have peculiar interests. For example, Iran is seeking a submarine that is specific for swimmer delivery. The more sophisticated nations look for a submarine that will fit into a synergistic, coherent employment of naval forces.

 

Submarine Manufacturers

 

Howaldtswerke of Kiel and Emden, Germany is probably the leading manufacturer of advanced type submarines. Running a close second is Kockums of Sweden which builds similar type submarines such as the Gotland. France builds the Scorpene which also boasts an advanced AIP system. While HDW receives no support from the German government, Kockums' research is partially government funded. The French government operates DCN (Direction Construction Naval) and competes with HDW for contracts with client nations. DCN is completing a building contract for two Scorpene submarines for Chile. Further, they have signed a contract for new Scorpene submarines for Malaysia and are hoping to sign a contract with India in the next few months.

 

Kockums in Sweden and Hellenic Shipyards in Athens, Greece are now both subsidiaries of Howaldtswerke. While HDW is currently occupied with building 212A boats for the German Navy, it is supervising construction of boats in Greece under license. Italy is building under license two type 212A submarines in its Fincantieri yard in Muggiano. Hyundai in Korea has negotiated a contract with HDW that will allow it to build a class of Type 214 AIP boat.

 

Constraints on HDW to build advanced submarines for other nations come from the German Government. It is prevented from building submarines for Taiwan and North Korea. Until recently this policy has extended to China, however, the Euro-copter, a helicopter of advanced design, is being built and sold to China without constraint. Wartsile LIPS has sold a license to China to build quiet naval propellers. Since there is no European policy on selling submarines, it is only a manufacturer's (or nation's) good judgment that prevents sales to rogue countries.

 

The German navy currently has fourteen submarines. This number is to be reduced to eight in the next several years, however, the projected eight submarines will all be AIP equipped with excellent submerged endurance.

 

The Swedes started building Hajen class boats in the 1960's. By the eighties it was building Vastergotland type submarines equipped with Sterling AIP engines. In the nineties it built theGotland and Collins (for Australia) submarines and now has designed the Viking. Germany started with the type 201 in the sixties and since then has built a variety of boats (over 60 in all) culminating in the 212A and 214. The 214 is larger than the 212 and is designed as an ocean submarine. The second batch of the 212A will be built for the German navy. It will have improved sonar and electronic equipment.

 

AMI Predictions of Things to Come

 

Over two hundred submarines are expected to be built by the world's nations from 2004 through 2023. Most of these will be some form of diesel-electric drive with some form of AIP system. A few ambitious nations will build their own nuclear submarines. These include China which is building its Kilo Class, its Song Class its Type 093 and 094 nuclear powered boats. All of these are off the drawing boards and in the works. France is likewise building its nuclear fleet with its Barracuda Class SSN and its Le Triomphant Class SSBN. Even India and Brazil have plans to build their own nuclear submarines.

 

Most future submarines will be diesel-electric. Pakistan just commissioned its second Agosta 90B and the third with MESMA AIP is under construction. Japan continues like clock work in the submarine business with five Oyashio Class boats being built and a planned SSK with AIP, likely to be a Stirling. Spain is commencing its own S-80 class boat. Some years ago Turkey embarked on an ambitious program to replace its aging Guppy fleet. Today four Gur (Type 209/1400) boats are under construction and a follow-on class with AIP is expected.

 

Great Britain will continue its Astute (fast attack SSN) program with seven boats projected over the next fifteen years. Russia's program over the next twenty years will see another Akula Class SSN being completed, seven Yasen SSNs and seven Borey SSBN submarines. In addition, it will build about nine non-nuclear boats.

 

The United States Submarine Building Program

 

Congress delimits the Navy's submarine building program by controlling the budget. Since the Submarine Force continues to be the "Silent Service" it is difficult to retain in Congress a solid footing for funding. This means that over the next decade the Navy will be constrained to a maximum of two nuclear submarines and a minimum of one per budget year.

 

Only Newport News and Groton build submarines. To keep a knowledgeable workforce the contracts are parceled out to the two companies on an approximate yearly alternating basis. The two designs being built are the Seawolf Class fast attack submarine (the third and final should be commissioned in 2005) and the Virginia Class SSBN.

 

These two designs have come from years of planning. In a 1998 letter to the Secretary of Defense the Navy said, ". . .requirement for ten to twelve new attack submarines with Seawolf level quieting by the year 2012 and to maintain future force structure goals. . .The Navy plans to spend $64 billion to acquire 30 new attack submarines over the next eighteen years."

 

In order for the Navy to meet the fast-changing demands of world conflict four of its SSBNs are being modified to SSGNs. These are extensive refits and siphon money away from new-boat allocations. Look for the future American submarine force to be much more diversified than its 2000 configuration.

 

In projecting the U. S. submarine building program through 2019 the fleet will likely reduce its Los Angeles Class inventory from a current 51 boats to 27 while the Seawolf and Virginia Class boats will be produced at a rate to total 19 boats by the year 2019. The Navy's current inventory of SSNs stands at fifty four. Its goal is to maintain not less than that number over the next two decades, however, unless the funding of new construction is increased the total inventory will slip to fifty boats by 2019. It is certainly to be hoped that over the next two decades Congress will allocate enough funding to keep the force at a total of not less than fifty five boats.

 

Of course, these projections are subject to the vagaries of world conflict and domestic demand for the available funds.