Saudis may use oil market to crush Iran's funding of militias

Since 12-02-06

ETHAN MCNERN

30 Nov 2006

http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=1773812006

USING money, weapons or its oil power, Saudi Arabia will intervene to prevent Iranian-backed Shiite militias from massacring Iraqi Sunni Muslims once the United States begins pulling out of Iraq, a senior security adviser to the Saudi government said yesterday.

Diplomats and analysts say Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbours, led by Saudi Arabia, fear that the sectarian violence could spill into large-scale civil war between Shiites and Sunnis and set off a political earthquake far beyond Iraq.

Nawaf Obaid, writing in the Washington Post, said the Saudi leadership was preparing to revise its Iraq policy to deal with the aftermath of a US pullout, and is considering options including flooding the oil market to crash prices and thus limit Iran's ability to finance Shiite militias in Iraq.

"To be sure, Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks - it could spark a regional war. So be it: the consequences of inaction are far worse," Mr Obaid said.

The article said the opinions expressed were Mr Obaid's own and not those of the Saudi government, headed by King Abdullah, but it is unlikely such a piece could have been written without permission.

"To turn a blind eye to the massacre of Iraqi Sunnis would undermine Saudi Arabia's credibility in the Sunni world and be a capitulation to Iran's militarist actions in the region," he said.

An official Arab source said: "Saudi Arabia is worried about Iran imposing its political agenda on the region. We don't want Iran and its allies to have a free hand. Iran knows that it is vulnerable and that Saudi Arabia has the upper hand and maintains real weight and power."

A Western diplomat based in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, said Saudi Arabia was already funding Sunni tribes in Iraq.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter and a close US ally, fears Shiite Iran has been gaining influence since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Mr Obaid listed three options being considered by the Saudi government:

• providing Sunni military leaders (ex-Iraqi officer corps, now the backbone of the insurgency) with funding and arms.

• establishing new Sunni brigades to combat the Iranian-backed Shiite militias.

• choking off Iran's ability to fund the militias by flooding the oil market .

"If Saudi Arabia boosted production and cut the price of oil in half ... it would be devastating to Iran. The result would be to limit Tehran's ability to continue funnelling hundreds of millions to Shiite militias in Iraq and elsewhere," said Mr Obaid.